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Daily link icon Wednesday, January 12, 2005

The near future in Iraq

Glenn links to an short but important piece at StrategyPage (unfortunately, that's not a permalink -- the story is titled "IRAQ: The Only Battles That Count").

I've been thinking a lot about the possible outcomes to Sunni efforts to start a civil war, or reinstate the Baath party, and there's no scenario under which their efforts bear fruit. The Sunni make up a small percentage of Iraq's population, and of course not all Sunnis side with the terrorists. Eventually, they'll be forced to do the math and decide that they're fighting a losing battle. Even if Sunni areas are to some degree disenfranchised in the election, which will be of their own doing, I can't imagine the Sunnis trying to start a civil war that they must clearly lose.

As for Syria's support, I don't see that being enough to make the difference. Unless Syria actually goes to war with Iraq to keep it from becoming a democracy (which I don't see happening), Syrian efforts will peter out over time, both from the natural course of events and from presure from us.

The only thing I see going wrong is if the people Iraqis elect just screw everything up, but that's the risk you inevitably take in a democracy. Widespread violence on election day and before in Iraq will do nothing significant to stop the transition to democracy. Even if the terrorists are relatively "successful" in their attacks and a few hundred people die, still, millions are going to vote, and the election will be a success.

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Elling wrote:

Oh you're such a fool, man........

Don't you see that the US is BOUND to loose the battle in Iraq? Don't you see what you're up against? If not, then I'll tell you: You're up against THOUSANDS of years of muslim traditions, and you're fighting with guns and ammo to try and force implant a pocket of western traditions. It's a mission impossible, and George Walker Bush is the greatest damn fool in recent history to not realize this before he started out on the war...

∴ Elling | 12-Jan-2005 6:59pm est | #6829

Keith (http://keithdevens.com/) wrote:

Well, we'll see what happens. People said democracy wouldn't work in Japan either because they had no traditions of democracy.

Keith | 12-Jan-2005 7:06pm est | http://keithdevens.com/ | #6830

Keith (http://keithdevens.com/) wrote:

Elling: related question. Do you support gay marriage?

(I'll explain how it's related when you answer.)

Keith | 13-Jan-2005 12:23am est | http://keithdevens.com/ | #6832

Elling wrote:

I don't necessarily support gay church marriages. Because, you know, I'm not a christian myself, so I'm not really entitled to have a vote on whether the church should allow gay couples to be married in the church.

But if you mean just the non-church part of gay marriage... Yeah I'm for it. I think that gay people who choose to live toghether in a life long commitment should have the same rights and benefits in society as normal straight couples. Is that a good enough answer?

∴ Elling | 13-Jan-2005 6:04am est | #6833

Keith (http://keithdevens.com/) wrote:

Sure, that's a fine answer. The reason I asked is that it's a hallmark of liberal thinking to believe that human nature and society are malleable enough to allow for radical changes. Sowell calls this view an "unconstrained" view of man. Hence, it's consistent for those with an unconstrained view to believe that things like centrally planned economies can work, that it's possible to safely change thousands of years of tradition regarding social structures like marriage, and so on. What seems inconsistent to me is that in this case you hold what seems to be a constrained view in saying that their culture (of totalitarianism? I didn't get that part) is too fixed to change.

Keith | 13-Jan-2005 7:02am est | http://keithdevens.com/ | #6834

Elling wrote:

Well, yeah.... But different cultures have different traditions when it comes to accepting foreign impulses. When it comes to Japan, which you mentioned, they have a strong historical tradition for studying other countries and for adopting elements of other cultures whenever the elements are thought to be improvements in comparison with their own culture... At least that's what happened when the Japanes adopted the Chinese writing system, when they adopted western industrial methods during the 19th and 20th century, and when they adopted the western democratic model of government. In other words, I think that Japan has a tradition for looking to other countries and other cultures for impulses.

The question then is whether this same tradition exists in Iraq, and I don't think it does. Besides, one important factor in the current Iraq war is that the US already was considered to be the big satan at the time when the invasion started. So, not only are you looking at getting Iraq to adopt central cultural elements from a western country, but you're looking at getting Iraq to adopt central cultural elements from it's traditional enemy number one, the US.

So yeah... I pretty much think it's a mission impossible, and I think it wasn't even very hard to predict that at the outset of the war. If you ask other people who were against the attack on Iraq..... I'm pretty sure that many of them would agree with me in the reasoning I explained above.

As for gay marriages being something that changes a thousand year old culture of only straight marriages..... Sure, it's a change. But it's more like an improvement, kind of. And why is it an improvement? Because it isn't something that's likely to destroy or corrupt the value or usefulness of traditional straight marriages. For instance, it's not like acceptance of gay marriage or partnership is going to cause more people to want to become gay...... So no, I don't think that it's something that will upset the balance of a thousand year old culture..... Not really.....

∴ Elling | 13-Jan-2005 5:07pm est | #6836

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