Archive: January 12, 2005

Wednesday, January 12, 2005

1. The War Against World War IV, by Norman Podhoretz, is a followup to his earlier article, World War IV, via LGF and Roger Simon. I'm going to have to read both together, so there goes a big chunk of my time

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2. WhoLockMe Explorer Extension tells you what programs have a file open in Windows, so if you try to delete a file and Windows shoots you down, you can figure out why. I'd usually use some of Sysinternals' tools for this purpose, but WhoLockMe has a more specific focus. However, I haven't tried WhoLockMe yet, so I can't vouch for it.

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3. FSF: Thank you, Poland!

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4. MaxQ "records you using a web site. It turns the links you click on and any other input into a Python script that you can play back at any time."

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5. Harold Hutchison at StrategyPage on our "peace dividend" during the 90's (as part of an article on regime change in Iran):

   Currently, Iraq involves 17 American brigades and three division headquarters. Afghanistan involves another division headquarters and three brigades. The 2nd Infantry Division is pretty much committed to defending the Republic of Korea. Two more divisions are carrying out peacekeeping in various parts of the world (the Sinai, Kosovo, and Bosnia being major deployments on that front). This is seven out of 24 divisions available (12 active, 8 National Guard, 3 active Marine, one reserve Marine). The Army is arguably stretched thin, since some divisions will have returned from Iraq or Afghanistan. Until the situation in Iraq stabilizes or additional divisions are formed up, that will remain the case. Iraq has become an insurgency, and those take time (usually five to ten years). Iran would, in all likelihood, develop a similar insurgency. That will further tie down American forces in the region.
   
   The options against Iran are limited, in large part due to the “peace dividend” of the 1990s, in which eight active-duty and four National Guard divisions were disbanded. What is also not mentioned is that the divisions at the end of the Cold War had more troops per division than they do now. The Air Force and Navy suffered similar cuts (the navy lost over 200 ships, including three carrier battle groups, and the Air Force lost a dozen fighter wings and retired the entire force of FB-111A and B-52G bombers). The peace dividend is proving to be very costly three years into the war on terrorism.

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6. ProfessorBainbridge.com: Affirmative Action in Law School Admissions. More on Rick Sander, who's shown that affirmative action in law school admissions hurt precisely the group they're intended to help. It's an example of what I always refer to as the upside-down results of liberal policies.

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The near future in Iraq

Glenn links to an short but important piece at StrategyPage (unfortunately, that's not a permalink -- the story is titled "IRAQ: The Only Battles That Count").

I've been thinking a lot about the possible outcomes to Sunni efforts to start a civil war, or reinstate the Baath party, and there's no scenario under which their efforts bear fruit. The Sunni make up a small percentage of Iraq's population, and of course not all Sunnis side with the terrorists. Eventually, they'll be forced to do the math and decide that they're fighting a losing battle. Even if Sunni areas are to some degree disenfranchised in the election, which will be of their own doing, I can't imagine the Sunnis trying to start a civil war that they must clearly lose.

As for Syria's support, I don't see that being enough to make the difference. Unless Syria actually goes to war with Iraq to keep it from becoming a democracy (which I don't see happening), Syrian efforts will peter out over time, both from the natural course of events and from presure from us.

The only thing I see going wrong is if the people Iraqis elect just screw everything up, but that's the risk you inevitably take in a democracy. Widespread violence on election day and before in Iraq will do nothing significant to stop the transition to democracy. Even if the terrorists are relatively "successful" in their attacks and a few hundred people die, still, millions are going to vote, and the election will be a success.

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06:37 (utc-5)