My guess on North Korea is that the regime is on the verge of collapse, so ill Il is giving it his all to pressure the US into bilateral talks to try to get concessions out of us -- as they've successfully done in the past with our last couple of Democratic presidents -- to try to maintain his grip of power on the country. A few billion from us, in keeping with the Clinton model, would probably go a long way for him.
Unless he's really really crazy, Il doesn't believe the line about wanting nukes to protect himself from the US, as he's done the math as well as we have and concluded that it doesn't make sense to invade. He could try to surreptitiously get nukes into the hands of terrorists to try to attack us directly indirectly, but declaring to the world that he has nukes undermines that purpose as he'll be the first one we go after should we be attacked that way.
Recent announcements have an air of desperation to them. I can't imagine him thinking that he'll benefit from starting an all-out nuclear war (though that's not to say he wouldn't use nukes if he'd already decided he'd lost control over his country), so I read the desperation as meaning his country is going to collapse on its own relatively soon.
It'll be interesting to watch this play out -- yet again I'm glad Bush is in office because he's handling it the right way: no bilateral talks, and no concessions. Though, additional options like a naval blockade to further the collapse of the country may make sense. We'll see what happens.
-
VDH: Why Democracy? (to read), via LGF.
Neoconservatives hope that a democratic Iraq and Afghanistan can usher in a new age of Middle Eastern consensual government that will cool down a century-old cauldron of hatred. Realists counter that democratic roots will surely starve in sterile Middle East soil, and it is a waste of time to play Wilsonian games with a people full of anti-American hatred who display only ingratitude for the huge investment of American lives and treasure spent on their freedom. Paleoconservatives prefer to spend our treasure here at home, while liberals oppose anything that is remotely connected with George W. Bush or refutes their own utopian notions of a world to be adjudicated by a paternal United Nations. All rightly fear demonocracy — the Arafat or Iranian unconstitutional formula of "one vote, one time."
Yet for all its uncertainties and dangers in the Islamic Arab world, there remain some undeniable facts about democracy across time and space that suggest with effort and sacrifice it can both work in the Middle East and will be in the long-term security interests of the United States. So why exactly should we support the daunting task of democratizing the Middle East and how is it possible?
¶ (0)
Tags: [Opinions/Politics]
-
Joseph Braude at The New Republic dissects Zawahiri's recent speech:
Al Zawahiri's speech represents a departure from the Al Qaeda addresses of recent memory, most of which amounted to direct threats of violence targeting Western and Muslim regimes (including, needless to say, their civilian populations). This statement, by contrast, was not so much threat as political argumentation, and the audience was not Western but rather Arab and Muslim. Implicit in Al Zawahiri's speech was an acknowledgement that the United States is now actively competing in the war for hearts and minds in Muslim countries--leaving Al Qaeda no choice but to engage America at the level of politics and ideas. The irony, however, is that Al Zawahiri seemed in his speech to be entering the realm of politics precisely to make clear what Al Qaeda won't do politically: namely, countenance the entrance of Islamists into the democratic arena.
Via Power Line. Very much worth a read.
¶ (0)
Tags: [Opinions/Politics]
-
Sam Ruby: Meta Charset Update. Anyone who wants to understand charset issues on the web should go through most of what he links. The main thing I took away is that the charset specified in HTTP has primacy. And that makes sense. Since that makes sense, and since things seem to be working the right way most of the time, what Mark Pilgrim had to say last year doesn't seem so bad.
¶
Tags: [Programming]
-
GOP.com: Who is Harry Reid?, via PoliPundit.
¶ (0)
Tags: [Opinions/Politics]
-
Unobtrusive Javascript, via Paul. Also see JavaScript Triggers, also via Paul.
¶ (0)
Tags: [Programming]
-
Ryan H. Sager on campaign finance reform and The War on Speech, via Glenn:
America's experiment with campaign-finance reform should never have been started. And now there may be no way to stop it. President Bush passed up his opportunity to stop it back in 2002 -- though he admitted at the time he thought the law was unconstitutional. The Supreme Court, in turn, punted on the issue and let an atrocity against our Constitution stand.
Last week, a bill was introduced in the Senate that would force 527s to register with the Federal Election Commission and restrict the groups' ability to raise and spend money.
The bill enjoys the support of Trent Lott, who had been one of 41 senators to vote against McCain-Feingold. Now, however, he's decided that any money given by wealthy individuals is "sewer money."
And why is this money so dirty suddenly?
"It was an unintended consequence of McCain-Feingold. Instead of going to the parties, rich people are putting money into these 527s in the dark of night," Lott told the Sun Herald in Biloxi, Miss.
In other words, some of those rich people might be trying to throw out incumbents.
McCain is even more blatant about the incumbent-protection angle. As The Washington Times reported last week, "McCain said lawmakers should support the bill out of self-interest, because it would prevent a rich activist from trying to defeat an incumbent by directing money into a political race through a 527 organization."
"That should alarm every federally elected member of Congress," McCain said.
Indeed, it certainly does.
I'm still mad at Bush for not vetoing the "incumbency protection act", and this "reform" is one of the many reasons I'd never want McCain to get the Republican nomination for President.
¶ (0)
Tags: [Opinions/Politics]
Friday, February 11, 2005
Permalink
Spider solitaire
To answer an earlier question, I amalmost certain every game can bebeat. ...
Jared: Jul 16, 2:20pm