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Daily link icon Sunday, August 1, 2004

No bounce for Kerry

USATODAY.com - Poll: No boost for Kerry after convention

In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards trailed the Republican ticket of Bush and Dick Cheney 50% to 46% among likely voters, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2%.

Before the convention, the two were essentially tied, with Kerry at 47%, Bush at 46%.

The change in support was within the poll's margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points in the sample of 763 likely voters. But it was nonetheless a stunning result, the first time in the Gallup Poll since the 1972 Democratic convention that a candidate seemed to lose ground at his convention.

(emph mine) My reaction after the convention was that I had a renewed confidence that Bush was going to win the election. It's astounding, they actually managed to pick a candidate who's a worse public speaker than Bush.

More here, via Donald Sensing. For the record, I don't put much faith in Newsweek polls.

Update: And, of course, who was the Democratic nominee in 1972? George McGovern, who went on to lose to Nixon in the biggest landslide in American history at the time.

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Comments XML gif

ideoplastos (http://www.ideoplastos.net) wrote:

It's astounding, they actually managed to pick a candidate who's a worse public speaker than Bush.

What???

∴ ideoplastos | 2-Aug-2004 11:00am est | http://www.ideoplastos.net | #5160

Keith (http://keithdevens.com/) wrote:

Did you watch Kerry's speech at the convention?

I did a direct comparison: Kerry at the convention one day, and Bush in Missouri the next day. I was surprised to realize that Bush was actually a better speaker than Kerry. Kerry's speech sucked, and so did his delivery.

Keith | 2-Aug-2004 1:18pm est | http://keithdevens.com/ | #5161

ideoplastos (http://www.ideoplastos.net) wrote:

Let us see what happens during the debates, friend.

∴ ideoplastos | 2-Aug-2004 3:11pm est | http://www.ideoplastos.net | #5163

Keith (http://keithdevens.com/) wrote:

Yes, I'm looking forward to them. But, that's different than making speeches.

Keith | 2-Aug-2004 3:35pm est | http://keithdevens.com/ | #5164

ideoplastos (http://www.ideoplastos.net) wrote:

I knew you'd say that, SmartyJones. Public speaking encompasses a whole lot more than just reciting a speech that's already been prepared, friend. Let's just wait until the leaves start to fall, shall we? Yes. Good.

∴ ideoplastos | 2-Aug-2004 3:45pm est | http://www.ideoplastos.net | #5165

Keith (http://keithdevens.com/) wrote:

If you'd like, you can watch both speeches and compare for yourself. Kerry, Bush.

Keith | 2-Aug-2004 3:57pm est | http://keithdevens.com/ | #5166

ideoplastos (http://www.ideoplastos.net) wrote:

Friend, you're not hearing me. You're referencing one individual speech by each candidate, yet making a blanket statement about their overall merits as orators, concluding that Bush is superior to Kerry in delivering public speeches. Right? I'm saying two things:

1. You can't make that jump just from watching (or at least referencing in your 'argument') only one single speech delivered by each candidate (e.g., I might be off one night when we're out at the bar or something and you might seem cooler than me for some odd reason. Heck, someone that doesn't know either of us just might come along, shoot the shit with each of us, and conclude that you're cooler than me. Well, see, that person would be wrong, because, as we all know, I am cooler than you -- I was just having an off night -- had that person checked my record at the Dojo of Cool, they would realize that I have been, am, and will continue to be truly cooler overall, you see. (Well, maybe not continue to be -- that doesn't necessarily follow... but, anyway.)).

2. You claimed Bush is a better public speaker than Kerry. We're obviously working with two different definitions of the phrase here. My definition has "being a good public speaker" meaning much more than "being good at reading a prepared, rehearsed text in front of an audience." Being a good public speaker means you can consistently address the facts, deliver your opinions to others, whatever the size of the audience, and field questions in a concise, enthusiastic and eloquent manner -- this includes speeches, debates, casual conversation, etc., not just speeches.

∴ ideoplastos | 2-Aug-2004 5:13pm est | http://www.ideoplastos.net | #5167

Keith (http://keithdevens.com/) wrote:

Haha, why are you getting so worked up about this? I was just giving a link to the speeches I was referring to.

I have to think that you wouldn't be making this big of a deal if I had said I thought Kerry was a better speaker.

Keith | 2-Aug-2004 5:40pm est | http://keithdevens.com/ | #5168

ideoplastos (http://www.ideoplastos.net) wrote:

I'm just tryin' to help you out, brother. You know, prepare you for the future and all. Smiley

∴ ideoplastos | 2-Aug-2004 6:57pm est | http://www.ideoplastos.net | #5169

CS wrote:

No bounce. Why? Because Kerry moved his platform toward the middle for the convention trying to attract the moderates. This move didn't excite any of the base liberals, and, in turn, gave the moderate folks no reason to differentiate between him and Bush. The dog-and-pony show about Kerry's war record was also ineffective, and does little to show how Kerry would handle the current state of foreign affairs--it was a smoke screen to cover up Kerry's record in the Senate.

I expect the poll-driven Kerry to change his course again and flip back toward the left. I also expect this will give Bush more fuel for the debates as Kerry will no doubt trample on his own words.

∴ CS | 3-Aug-2004 11:21am est | #5173

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