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Keith Devens .com

Monday, December 1, 2008 Flag waving
No battle plan ever survives contact with the enemy. – Field Marshall Helmuth Carl Bernard von Moltke
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Daily link icon Friday, March 21, 2003

Market Reaction

Amazing stuff today. The market is going nuts. I heard on the news that this is the best week the market has had since October 1982. The market has gained 12% of its value from a week ago, and has risen for 8 days straight (which hasn't happened since 1996), the DOW gaining 235 points today.

Delta airlines has gained 42% over the past week, Continental gained too. The way the person on the news put it is that if there's any way to tell how people feel safer flying as a result of this war, you can look at what's happening with the airline stocks.

And oil prices are dropping (whoda thunk?) This whole enterprise is so fundamental to our war on terror it's incredible. Once Iraqi oil starts flowing at market prices, the Iraqi people will become wealthy. Importantly, this will mean the end of OPEC, which will of course put all the terror-supporting states such as Saudi Arabia in a bad place. You watch.

I hope this shows our president that the people appreciate it when our country shows strength and decisiveness, and that we don't care whether France is happy or not.

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Comments XML gif

James (http://www.ordinary-life.net) wrote:

All politics aside. I don't think its a show of support. That's reading a bit much into it. More like, oh hey, cheap oil!

Which is fine and all, just don't turn it into a rallying cry.

∴ James | 21-Mar-2003 7:12pm est | http://www.ordinary-life.net | #1620

M. Bean wrote:

∴ M. Bean | 22-Mar-2003 7:45am est | #1622

Keith (http://www.keithdevens.com/) wrote:

James, you could be right. However, one of the things I constantly heard about why the market wasn't doing so well is because of investor uncertainty about how the war. Now our investors have confidence in our country again Smiley One of the measures I heard that I forgot to relay is that the investor confidence index (whatever that is) was at around 88 a week ago (92 a month ago), and now it's at like 102 or 106.

It could always be a little bit of both. Either way, thanks for the comment, I hadn't quite thought about things that way.

Keith | 22-Mar-2003 12:10pm est | http://www.keithdevens.com/ | #1624

James (http://www.ordinary-life.net) wrote:

True, but I think the market would have surged either way. I think less so if it was a no go on war. War is expensive, which is great for companies that produce munitions, supplies, food, etc.

Also the rebuilding process will most likely be a big moneymaker. Apparently we've already started pushing the UN out of the rebuilding effort and instead are positioning american companies to do the work. (I'm not sure whether that's good or bad yet). Either way the uncertainty was bad for the market place. I think long term it won't solve the larger problems our current economy faces but thats frankly over my head till I look more into it. So yeah, we basically agree.

∴ James | 22-Mar-2003 9:33pm est | http://www.ordinary-life.net | #1625

Keith (http://www.keithdevens.com/) wrote:

Via DCortesi.com, there's an interesting article from SFGate.com: Markets soar on positive war news: Dow's best weekly gain in 20 years

After weeks of gloom about a possible war, investor sentiment has reversed quickly. Just nine trading days ago, the Dow and the S&P were within striking distance of the five-year stock market lows of last October.

"This is a sigh of relief," [Henry Kaufman, president of Henry Kaufman & Co.] said of the current stock rally.

Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, said, "The anticipation of war creates uncertainty, and the start of the war reduces that uncertainty," adding that because of the earlier decline, a bounce was due.

The other big impact on the stock market, he said, has been the swing in the price of crude oil, which neared $38 a barrel at its peak ahead of war. Now, the price has fallen below $27, which should help revive consumer spending and the stock market, he said.

;)

Keith | 23-Mar-2003 2:11am est | http://www.keithdevens.com/ | #1629

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