Keith Devens .com |
Monday, December 1, 2008 | ![]() |
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James (http://www.ordinary-life.net) wrote:
M. Bean wrote:
Keith (http://www.keithdevens.com/) wrote:
James, you could be right. However, one of the things I constantly heard about why the market wasn't doing so well is because of investor uncertainty about how the war. Now our investors have confidence in our country again
One of the measures I heard that I forgot to relay is that the investor confidence index (whatever that is) was at around 88 a week ago (92 a month ago), and now it's at like 102 or 106.
It could always be a little bit of both. Either way, thanks for the comment, I hadn't quite thought about things that way.
James (http://www.ordinary-life.net) wrote:
True, but I think the market would have surged either way. I think less so if it was a no go on war. War is expensive, which is great for companies that produce munitions, supplies, food, etc.
Also the rebuilding process will most likely be a big moneymaker. Apparently we've already started pushing the UN out of the rebuilding effort and instead are positioning american companies to do the work. (I'm not sure whether that's good or bad yet). Either way the uncertainty was bad for the market place. I think long term it won't solve the larger problems our current economy faces but thats frankly over my head till I look more into it. So yeah, we basically agree.
Keith (http://www.keithdevens.com/) wrote:
Via DCortesi.com, there's an interesting article from SFGate.com: Markets soar on positive war news: Dow's best weekly gain in 20 years
After weeks of gloom about a possible war, investor sentiment has reversed quickly. Just nine trading days ago, the Dow and the S&P were within striking distance of the five-year stock market lows of last October.
"This is a sigh of relief," [Henry Kaufman, president of Henry Kaufman & Co.] said of the current stock rally.
Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, said, "The anticipation of war creates uncertainty, and the start of the war reduces that uncertainty," adding that because of the earlier decline, a bounce was due.
The other big impact on the stock market, he said, has been the swing in the price of crude oil, which neared $38 a barrel at its peak ahead of war. Now, the price has fallen below $27, which should help revive consumer spending and the stock market, he said.
;)
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All politics aside. I don't think its a show of support. That's reading a bit much into it. More like, oh hey, cheap oil!
Which is fine and all, just don't turn it into a rallying cry.